"Air Power, Spy Agents & U.S. Weapons: Is Israel Gaining an Upper Hand over Iran?"

Is Israel vs Iran a Mismatched Conflict?

At a Glance: Iran vs. Israel

Data from 2022. Some figures are sourced from public databases.

The conflict between Israel and Iran is highly asymmetrical.

Israel, with a population of 9 million, is up against Iran—a massive West Asian nation with a population of 88 million. In terms of geographical size too, Israel is far smaller than Iran.

However, Israel's powerful and technologically advanced military gives it the upper hand even against a much larger adversary. Notably, most of Israel’s weaponry is supplied by the United States.

What Has Israel Achieved So Far?

Israel claims to have achieved “full control” over Iranian airspace. So far, Israel has maintained complete dominance in the skies. Iran’s older fighter jets reportedly couldn’t even take off, let alone engage in combat.

Israeli air superiority has been backed by U.S.-made advanced fighter aircraft dropping precision-guided bombs at close range, seemingly with no fear of being shot down.

Iran’s air defense system was rendered ineffective last October, when Israel struck Iran’s S-300 air defense system from long range.

Even before open conflict began, Israeli intelligence agents had infiltrated Iran, preparing to strike Iranian retaliatory capabilities from within.

Agents of Israel’s spy agency Mossad smuggled drones into Iran, which were then used to target the remaining Iranian air defense systems.

In addition, several Iranian military commanders were killed in Israeli strikes, significantly weakening Iran’s ability to mount a counterattack.

Is Iran Capable of Retaliation?

According to a U.S. intelligence report, before the Israeli strikes, Iran possessed the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in West Asia, estimated between 2,000 to 3,000.

Israel claims to have targeted and destroyed some of these assets, including missile production facilities. The Israeli military also claims to have destroyed one-third of Iran's surface-to-surface missile launchers.

Despite these attacks, Iran still possesses short-range air defense missiles.

For years, Iran has supplied weapons and technology to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, Israel’s recent offensives have severely degraded both groups’ capabilities at the front lines.

Hamas in Gaza is nearly dismantled, and Hezbollah’s power has diminished to the extent that it has been unable to respond to Israeli attacks on Iran.

However, Houthi rebels in Yemen do possess the capability to launch missiles at Israel—and have already done so.

Despite U.S. airstrikes on the Houthis, they managed to shoot down several Reaper drones using surface-to-air missiles.

Could Other Countries Join the Conflict?

Iran has the capacity to target Western military bases in the region.

Iran-backed militias in Iraq have already begun targeting such bases, prompting preparations from both the U.S. and the U.K..

Around 100 British troops are stationed in Baghdad, Iraq, and the U.K. recently deployed Typhoon fighter jets to Cyprus to bolster protection.

Moreover, U.S. and U.K. naval ships stationed in Bahrain could come under threat if the conflict escalates, increasing the risks for Western forces the longer the war drags on.

Iran also possesses the ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. While doing so might be considered irrational, Tehran could still decide to act on this capability.

Will Israel Achieve Its Objectives?

Although Israel appears to have the upper hand, even U.S. support may not be enough for it to achieve all its strategic goals.

Israel’s future military actions will heavily depend on American backing.

Each year, Israel receives billions of dollars in U.S. military aid, including U.S.-made warplanes and weapons systems.

Even interceptor missiles used in Israel’s Iron Dome system are manufactured in the U.S.

Israel’s use of bunker-buster bombs to target Iran’s underground nuclear facilities also relies on weapons largely supplied by the U.S.

Reportedly, U.S. President Donald Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to target Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.

Moreover, the U.S. has not provided Israel with the “Massive Ordnance Penetrator”, a 13,600 kg bomb capable of striking Iran’s deep underground nuclear facility at Fordow—deployable only by U.S. B-2 strategic bombers.

Even with continued U.S. support, Israel may not be able to fully achieve its objectives.

Airstrikes may disrupt Iran’s nuclear program but are unlikely to destroy it completely.

Israel’s hope of regime change in Iran also seems unrealistic.

In this scenario, Israeli airstrikes may generate fear, destruction, and rubble—but not guaranteed success.

Strait of Hormuz: Global Impact If the Waterway Closes"

Following Israeli strikes on Iran, concerns have arisen that the Strait of Hormuz might be shut down.

But where is the Strait of Hormuz, and why is it so important?

The Strait of Hormuz lies between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, forming a maritime boundary between Iran and Oman. This is a narrow waterway—at one point only 33 kilometers wide.

Significance

The importance of this strait is evident from the fact that nearly one-fifth of the world’s total oil supply passes through it.

Crude oil exported from countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iran is shipped through this strait to global markets.

Additionally, Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), also depends on this route for its shipments.

During the Iran-Iraq war (1980–1988), both countries attempted to disrupt each other’s oil supplies through this same waterway.

Commercial tankers were attacked in the conflict, severely impacting global energy supplies. This phase of the conflict came to be known as the “Tanker War.”

What Would Happen If the Strait of Hormuz Closes?

It is estimated that if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 20% of the global oil supply could be disrupted.

In June, global financial giant J.P. Morgan warned that in such a scenario, crude oil prices could surge to $120–130 per barrel.

Even the mere fear of the Strait closing has already begun affecting oil prices in international markets.

If the Strait were to be blocked, oil supply would be disrupted, and prices would spike.

Analysts believe that if the conflict escalates, attacks on this vital infrastructure could occur, delivering a serious blow to global energy supplies.

Impact on Global Oil Markets

Due to rising tensions between Israel and Iran, international oil markets saw a sharp price increase on Monday.

In Asian markets, Brent crude oil prices jumped by more than $2 (2.8%), reaching $76.37 per barrel.

The price of U.S. crude oil also rose by nearly $2, reaching $75.01 per barrel.

This comes after a 7% surge in oil prices last Friday, marking a rapid upward trend.

Past Conflicts Over the Strait

The Strait of Hormuz has long been a flashpoint in U.S.-Iran tensions.

In 1988, a U.S. fighter jet shot down an Iranian passenger plane, killing 290 people.

The U.S. claimed it was a “military error,” saying their naval fleet mistook the airliner for a fighter aircraft. But Iran called it a premeditated attack.

The U.S. has long claimed its warships patrol the region to protect commercial shipping, which could be targeted by Iran’s navy.

In 2008, the U.S. stated that Iranian boats attempted to approach three U.S. warships.

In response, then-commander-in-chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari, warned that if their boats were attacked, they would seize American vessels.

In 2010, a Japanese oil tanker was attacked in the strait, an attack later claimed by a group linked to Al-Qaeda.

In 2012, when the U.S. and Europe imposed economic sanctions on Iran, Tehran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, alleging the sanctions were a conspiracy to deprive Iran of oil revenue.

In 2018, when the U.S. adopted a policy of reducing Iranian oil exports to zero, then-President Hassan Rouhani signaled that Iran could disrupt oil traffic through the Strait.

A Revolutionary Guards commander also warned that if Iranian oil exports were blocked, they would completely halt oil movement in the Strait of Hormuz.